Belt and Road: The ‘China Dream’?
with O Shepotylo
Status: working paper available via SSRN
Our results also suggest that the rewards for both China and the EU can be even greater if they are also willing to commit to a FTA, where this prospect has been considered as the potential next stage after the China-EU Investment Agreement is concluded. This committed approach would need policy makers spell out to interconnectedness of the BRI, China-EU Investment Agreement and FTA initiatives, where this only likely to happen if China is satisfied that the EU is a strong, stable and credible partner. Further, China will need to be make concessions, which are very unlikely to be possible in the short-term. The EU also remains wary of the balance of gains weighed in China’s favour; this imbalance is also highlighted in our empirical findings. The BRI can be viewed as an alternative to a China-EU FTA, at least in the short-term. However, the BRI countries are already seeking further detail on the initiative. In essence there is a missing middle; project level detail and vague slogans. China needs to, at least, appear to engage with a level of plurilateral/multilateral dialogue. This may support a move from discrete projects to an infrastructure pipeline.
Speaking at the College of Europe, 23 Nov 2017
International Conference: The Belt and Road Initiative: EU-China Logistics and Supply Chain
Full details available @ EU-China Observer
Also presented at