Ongoing research

[Funded project]

China in Uzbekistan: An investigation into the effects of the BRI on trade, migration, and Chinese language education

Funder: WUIT Collaborative Research Fund
Amount: 9,710 pounds
Status: ongoing/Co-I (Nov 2019 - Nov 2021)

The project team is comprised of a multi-lingual team of researchers based in London and Tashkent. The research aims...

to map out different types of investment (Chinese government investment/loans, State-Owned Enterprise investment, private investment) into relevant sectors over the last ten years;
to map Chinese migration to Uzbekistan associated with the development of BRI;
to map the establishment of Confucius institutes and classrooms, and to analyse data in relation to Chinese language learning and teaching as well as the need for Chinese language interpreting and translation;
to map media coverage of China and BRI in two main Uzbek publications.

Project page

[Working papers]

The role of global and regional factors driving international trade
with K Beck
Status: working paper

This paper examines the relative importance of global, regional, country and idiosyncratic factors that underpin fluctuations in international trade flows across different regions of the world. Our analysis uses a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model (BDFM) to simultaneously estimate the four dynamic factors. Our key findings are two-fold: (i) there is significant heterogeneity in the relative importance of the different factors across regions (ii) international factors contribute to the highest share of the variance. These results reinforce the importance of staving off protectionist tendencies, supporting the WTO to re-establish a functioning dispute settlement system, and providing support such that trade routes can withstand the demand and supply shocks stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Belt and Road: The China Dream?
with O Shepotylo
Status: working paper available via SSRN

Our empirical findings justify China’s massive financial commitment to the initiative, particularly in light of the uncertainty created by the China-US trade war. Moreover, our results also suggest that the rewards for both China and the EU can be even greater if they are also willing to commit to an FTA, this having been mooted as the potential next step after the China-EU Investment Agreement has been concluded. This gestalt approach requires policymakers to spell out the interconnectedness of the BRI, the China-EU Investment Agreement, and FTA initiatives, and this is only likely to happen if China is satisfied that the EU is a strong, stable, and credible partner.

Risky business: Political stability along the Belt and Road
with O Shepotylo
Status: working paper

Our key findings are that (i) military alliances between BRI countries and China are expected to have the most positive effect on welfare, with particularly positive effects on China and South Asia (ii) improved political stability across BRI countries is expected to have the most beneficial impact on South Asia. These results suggest that it is important to look beyond economic gains derived from trade cost reductions; politically aligning countries participating in the BRI and providing security to the countries where China invest in transport and infrastructure has the potential to deliver significant benefits.